Class-A teams off a SU loss are a long-term

[jaywillen]

Dallas finished the regular season with Terry Sawchuk Womens Jersey the best record in the league (67-15 SU) and now they find themselves trailing in this series against the #8 seed Golden State Warriors. Look for Dallas to bounce back with a solid performance tonight as this is the most important game of the season for the defending Western Conference champions.

Class-A teams off a SU loss are a long-term winning play in Game 4 and the Mavericks fit a 54-28 ATS situation based on that premise. Road teams off a blowout loss are also a long-term winning play in the postseason and Dallas fits a 68-42 ATS situation which is based on their embarrassing 18-point loss in Game 3.

While the situations are http://www.officialauthenticredwings.com/authentic-7-ted-lindsay-je... favorable, the line is way too high. The Warriors are much better than a typical #8 seed and Golden State's full season record of 44-41 SU is misleading as the Warriors are an incredible 18-5 SU/ATS since March 5th with their entire starting lineup together (excluding the March 11th game which Baron Davis missed).

My full season power ratings Nick Leddy Red Jersey favor the Mavericks by 4 points; however using just games since March 5th would favor actually favor Golden State outright by 1½ points tonight. The Warriors also match up well in this series and are 8-2 SU/ATS versus Dallas the past two seasons. Golden State head coach Don Nelson previously coached in Dallas and he is very familiar with the Maverick's style and current players.

No official play on the total (O/U 210). A light lean towards the Under as the three playoff games have averaged just 197½ points per game and I do expect Dallas to concentrate more on defense after allowing 109 points in Game 3. Overall, my re-scoring pace and percentage models have averaged 208 and 210½ in the three playoff games.

STEVE MERRIL is a professional http://www.officialislandersshop.com/authentic-84-mikhail-grabovski... sports handicapper and a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Get his Premium plays here.